Second, the Lib Dems will be the preferred primary partner for both Labour and the Tories.
The benefit of coalitions is that, to a certain degree, leaders can throw their manifestos on a bonfire and use the coalition argument when challenged about delivery. But there does need to be at least some common ground for a coalition agreement to be made.
The Conservatives have moved away from repeating the same rhetoric about building more houses and are sliding towards a myriad of initiatives to boost home ownership. We have seen a pledge to extend Help to Buy in England, the Help to Buy ISA in the last Budget, as well as plans to extend the Right To Buy policy.
When new development is brought up, the party has set out a suite of policies for brownfield development, including suspending s106 contributions on brownfield sites, and a proposal to prioritise some homes for first-time buyers under 40.
The Lib Dems are also signed up to Right To Buy and have even created their own version, “Rent To Buy”, so this drive for home ownership could be an area of synergy for coalition 2.0.
But, while still officially supporting garden cities, the Tories have become quiet on the subject. This contrasts with the Lib Dems, which have nailed their colours firmly to the garden cities mast with the proposed “arc” of prosperity between Oxford and Cambridge. Now, what do you find a lot of between Oxford and Cambridge? Conservative voters who don’t want development?
Enter Labour, which has also put garden cities at the forefront of its housing policy and has the benefit of not having many voters in those sleepy shires that Mr Clegg has singled out.
Labour is also emphasising more power for local authorities to force development to come forward. Pledges include a “Right to Grow” to break deadlocks between local authorities on new strategic settlements, as well as granting new powers for councils to confiscate consented land unless developers speed up delivery. This could be appealing to a Lib Dem negotiating team.
So, if it’s blue and yellow again, expect more emphasis on home ownership.
If it’s red and yellow, expect large strategic development and affordable housing to be placed at the forefront.
But, if the Lib Dems are truly the kingmakers, their garden city proposals might make it on to an agreement with both the Conservatives or Labour; the pain of delivering projects like these could be much less for MPs than dealing with residents opposing development after development on a rolling basis in their towns and villages.
It is worth stressing, though, that the argument about Red and Yellow vs Blue and Yellow is a simple interpretation of what is now a complex palette of political Pantones. Who knows what differences the other shades of the Dulux colour chart might make?
Tony Curtin, chief executive, Curtin & Co
