EU REFERENDUM: Bilfinger GVA has surveyed its staff for their views on what would happen if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow.
The survey of 700 directors and associates found that 85% of respondents said the UK should remain, while 74% expected growth to be lower in the short term if the UK leaves.
In the event of a Remain vote, Bilfinger said activity would almost certainly rebound, though due to timing at the start of the summer period, the impact might not be felt until Q4.
In the event of a leave outcome, it said there would be a minimal effect on prime property, while there would be a secondary slowdown with a potential upwards yield shift. There would be no change to the fundamental benefits of investing in UK commercial property, but rising UK gilt yields would make it look less attractive, though the fall in sterling’s value will make UK property cheaper for overseas investors
Brexit predictions by sector
Offices will see a varying impact across the sectors in the event of Brexit. However, 62% of staff thought there were would be a decrease in demand for financial services space, and 75% thought Frankfurt would be more of a threat to the city of London.
The retail property market could post a decline in short-term growth due to weaker consumer confidence, though structural changes in the sector will remain the key driver of performance.
The effect of Brexit on logistics will be limited because the majority of the market is driven by the domestic retail market, though manufacturing-led logistics could slow if trade volumes fall.
Leisure UK property could benefit from a Brexit vote, as a fall in sterling increases prices abroad, though there is potential for long term decline.
Student accommodation performance could suffer, as greater immigration control limits overseas student numbers.
To read more about the property industry and the EU referendum, click here.
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