Scotland can expect a post-independence economic “bounce”, a Scottish National Party MSP told more than 100 people at Estates Gazette’s Scotland Question Time.
“I think the commercial property market will be better in five years; if nothing else, we will benefit from the post-independence bounce which every country benefits from for about three years after independence. It will be a huge fillip for the economy,” said Colin Beattie, the MSP for Midlothian and Musselburgh.
Beattie made the emboldened prediction despite not having a single backer in the room, including other panellists Stuart Heslop, regional managing director of real estate at Royal Bank of Scotland, Danny O’Neill, managing director, Ediston Properties, John Bury, head of planning at City of Edinburgh Council and Nick Penny, director of investments at Savills Edinburgh.
An audience referendum at the Edinburgh event also failed to unearth support, with the ‘yes’ option met with stony silence.
The issue underscored the 8th February debate, chaired by Damian Wild, Estates Gazette editor.
O’Neill said the uncertainty was hampering investment, while Penny said the issue of currency was not at the forefront of investors’ minds as much as potential changes to fiscal policy and transactional costs.
Despite the conjecture, there was a sense that commercial property in Scotland is in a better place than most other parts of the UK, albeit tempered by apprehension.
“We’ve got tangible evidence schemes are being funded. We are extremely busy in Aberdeen … and we do start this year with much more on our desks than we had right through spring to autumn 2012,” Heslop said.
O’Neill aired his frustrations, citing “inertia” in the market – due to vendors not feeling compelled to sell at current prices, yet developers willing to buy – and nonprogressive thinking: “I don’t think the industry’s particularly entrepreneurial when it comes to funding sources.”
Other topics covered included the future of high streets, green buildings, lending, secondary stock and increased planning fees.
Watch the highlights video below or listen to the podcast for the full debate.
rebecca.kent@estatesgazette.com
