EG London Offices Market Analysis Q4 2015

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LOMA Q4: 2015

West End shines

Double the sq ft of lettings and a massive media deal. We haven’t seen a West End market like this since 2002

•  City: click here

• West End: click here

• Midtown: click here

• City Fringe: click here

• Docklands: click here

• Southern Fringe: click here

• Dashboard: click here

• Top 25 agents 2015: click here


As the fourth quarter drew to a close a collective sigh of relief could be heard across London’s office market.

Despite wobbles in September and fears about slowing international investment, take-up in the final quarter of 2015 of just under 4.2 m sq ft was well above the five-year quarterly trend, according to EGi’s London Office Market Analysis.

Driving that was a market with the highest level of take-up for 13 years – nearly double the previous quarter. No, not the trendy fringe but the West End, where despite a suffocating level of availability, take-up rose to just shy of 1.4m sq ft.

Two mega-deals – Cleveland Clinic’s 232,000 sq ft at 33 Grosvenor Place, SW1, and Facebook’s 227,000 sq ft prelet at One Rathbone Square, W1 – helped save not just the West End but also London.

Knight Frank was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the social media giant’s deal. It took the London top spot as well as notching up a City/West End double in Q4, pipping CBRE and JLL.

With year-end take-up totals dropping by 500,000 sq ft compared to 2014, agents are upbeat but cautious. Stephen Clifton, head of central London at Knight Frank, says: “It was a year of consolidation. The rental growth that everyone had been hoping would arrive was finally here, tenants were happy to make decisions about preletting.”

Knight Frank chief economist James Roberts says: “In the occupier market, Q4 finished pretty well. It started the year relatively weak, and we have had this steady pick-up throughout the year. In terms of occupier demand, it is holding up pretty rigorously.”

Despite a shaky spell at the end of Q3, total take-up recovered, deal numbers were well up – 428 against last year’s 317 – and rents crept up in most sub-markets.

“Did it tail off? The market had a real wobble around September, but held its nerve in the final quarter,” adds Knight Frank’s Clifton.

This seems to have been the general mood among agents. While take-up seemed slow to some, generally, it was a good end to the year, with availability taking its toll on take-up as much as demand.

“There is an argument that you cannot sustain recent levels of take-up as there is nothing to acquire,” said Phillip Pearce, executive director at Savills’ London office.

Of course, this could hinder take-up in 2016, especially if the global financial woes seen in January continue, and low availability does not translate into rental growth, though it could be a bonanza for the more peripheral markets.

“I sense the big story of 2016 will be the year of more Stratford, probably Croydon and maybe even Wembley,” says Dan Bayley, senior director at BNP Paribas Real Estate. “I think it will be the year of the outer London schemes, partly because of the quality of schemes and partly because of the value.”

With availability at historic lows in almost all the central London markets, and a relatively thin pipeline of new development, he could be right.


Consensus-rents-Q4-2015
Click to enlarge

 Top 25 Agents Q4 2015

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Share
1 Knight Frank 1.1m 40 24%
2 Cushman & Wakefield 995,800 46 22%
3 CBRE 920,417 79 21%
4 GM Real Estate 810,826 15 18%
5 JLL 657,801 60 15%
6 Savills 444,062 26 10%
7 Colliers International 339,111 26 8%
8 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 208,701 26 5%
9 BNP Paribas Real Estate 166,069 12 4%
10 Farebrother 156,253 25 3%
11 Strutt & Parker 141,077 19 3%
12 Bilfinger GVA 114,260 13 3%
13 Deloitte Real Estate 112,162 5 3%
14 Allsop 111,248 8 2%
15 Edward Charles & Partners 104,837 13 2%
16 Gryphon Property Partners 101,946 8 2%
17 Anton Page 93,739 13 2%
18 Ingleby Trice 89,831 15 2%
19 Monmouth Dean 49,366 11 1%
20 Strettons Limited 49,071 2 1%
21 AOS Studley (Now part of Spring4) 48,691 1 1%
22 Gerald Eve 46,340 4 1%
23 Hanover Green 45,164 9 1%
24 Stirling Ackroyd 39,600 8 1%
25 Richard Susskind & Co 31,510 11 1%

Investment league table Q4 2015

Rank Agent Total (£m)
1 JLL £1,528
2 Cushman & Wakefield £1,344
3 CBRE £1,286
4 Eastdil Secured £1,187
5 Knight Frank £1,118
6 Capital Real Estate Partners £820
7 GM Real Estate £757
8 Savills £609
9 Michael Elliott £427
10 Allsop £360

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CITY

100-Bishopsgate-EC3
Royal Bank of Canada signed the biggest deal of the year at 100 Bishopsgate, EC3

Take-up slowed in the City during 2015 but was far from lacklustre, with total disposals exceeding 4m sq ft.

In Q4, Knight Frank managed to shift more than 326,000 sq ft to pip GM Real Estate and its 298,000 sq ft to the top spot.

The pair worked on the big-ticket deal of the quarter, 100 Bishopsgate, EC3, with its 245,000 sq ft letting to Royal Bank of Canada bolstering their totals. This pushed JLL to third place for the quarter but could not dislodge it from the top spot for the year. It acted on 1.3m sq ft of space, ahead of CBRE at 1m sq ft.

JLL took the first and second quarters and acted on three of the top five deals of the year – Moor Place, EC2, the Leadenhall Building, EC3 and Alderman’s House, EC2. The relative stability of the top five could be challenged next year by Cushman & Wakefield following its merger with DTZ.

Philip Pearce, executive director, central London, at Savills, says: “It was a fairly consistent performance across the board, with the exception of one standout performer, serviced offices, which accounted 12% of total take-up.”

Alongside serviced offices – WeWork taking 168,000 sq ft at Moor Place, EC2, being the prime example – the market also saw more growth at the top end of the market, according to Alistair Brown, senior director of central London agency at C&W.

“We have seen greater rental growth in [prime] areas that help occupiers with their brand and recognition with clients,” he says.

James Roberts, chief economist at Knight Frank, adds: “For new-build or refurbished space in central London, it was the best year since 2007, and for the City it was the best since 2000. What seems to have dragged it down was a poor performance by the lesser quality space.”

“With availability standing at 5.4 years – around half of the five-year average – supply is going to be a critical factor,” says C&W’s Brown. “We are at a supply level that is less than 3.5% in the City, and for grade A that falls below 1.5%. With only 1.6m sq ft being delivered by the end of 2016, we are anticipating prime rents by the end of 2016 will reach £74 per sq ft. The signs in the market are that it is achievable.”

 Top 10 agents Q4 2015: City

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Knight Frank 326,686 9 35%
2 GM Real Estate 297,689 5 32%
3 JLL 225,236 28 24%
4 CBRE 220,396 19 23%
5 Cushman & Wakefield 138,585 14 15%
6 Savills 127,119 8 13%
7 Ingleby Trice 72,027 11 8%
8 BNP Paribas Real Estate 67,479 6 7%
9 AOS Studley (Now part of Spring4) 48,691 1 5%
10 Gerald Eve 46,340 4 5%

 Top 10 agents 2015: City

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 JLL 1,273,400 107 30%
2 CBRE 1,027,041 83 24%
3 Savills 854,884 57 20%
4 GM Real Estate 778,518 25 18%
5 Knight Frank 758,463 36 18%
6 Cushman & Wakefield 544,801 35 13%
7 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 389,105 29 9%
8 Ingleby Trice 297,452 42 7%
9 Newton Perkins 251,655 30 6%
10 BNP Paribas Real Estate 204,276 20 5%

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WEST END

33-Grosvenor-Place-W1
33 Grosvenor Place, W1

An extremely strong final quarter, in which nearly 1.4m sq ft was transacted with 11 deals over 25,000 sq ft, capped a remarkable year for the West End. And, despite complaints about tightness of supply, disposals were up 8% on 2014.

Disposing of more than 568,000 sq ft propelled Knight Frank to the top of the table in Q4, but CBRE topped the annual league after acting on 941,000 sq ft.

For Knight Frank, the key was acting on the Facebook deal at One Rathbone Square, W1, Deutsche Bank at the Zig Zag building, SW1, and the Carlyle Group at St James’s Market, SW1 – three of the largest deals of the year and all in the final quarter.

Over the year as a whole, CBRE acted on considerably more deals, though of smaller lot sizes, and retained the top spot. Colliers International, Cushman & Wakefield and JLL completed the top five, all letting more than 400,000 sq ft.

Deals of the year included the sale of 33 Grosvenor Place, SW1, to Cleveland Clinic and that Facebook prelet , which cut availability to just 3.5 years by the end of 2015 – two years less than the five-year average.

Lack of supply is causing occupiers to widen their search areas, according to Savills’ director of office agency Brian Allen. He says: “Financial occupiers looking beyond Mayfair and St James are a reflection of rents, but they are looking at more lively areas too, as they have younger staff and want a location with a bit more buzz.”

Kevin McCauley, head of central London research at CBRE, believes two distinct markets are starting to emerge: “The core is 6% below the West End average, the rest is 8% above. The key reason the core is not performing well is supply constraints, but also because the sectors that drive that – boutique consultancy services – have been affected by the slowdown. That has been borne out by the pressure on rents not being as strong as we would have anticipated.”

Top 10 agents Q4 2015: West End

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Knight Frank 568,678 20 39%
2 CBRE 363,352 34 25%
3 Cushman & Wakefield 320,113 12 22%
4 Colliers International 269,907 15 18%
5 GM Real Estate 232,326 1 16%
6 JLL 139,653 12 9%
7 Bilfinger GVA 104,995 9 7%
8 Edward Charles & Partners 92,728 10 6%
9 Strutt & Parker 82,024 10 6%
10 Bluebook 28,505 5 2%

Top 10 agents 2015: West End

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 CBRE 941,100 105 22%
2 Knight Frank 835,001 52 20%
3 Colliers International 588,737 80 14%
4 Cushman & Wakefield 483,664 35 11%
5 JLL 450,011 41 11%
6 GM Real Estate 232,326 1 5%
7 Bilfinger GVA 223,215 29 5%
8 Edward Charles & Partners 222,733 38 5%
9 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 210,042 17 5%
10 Strutt & Parker 200,443 42 5%

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MIDTOWN

1-New-Street-EC4
1 New Street Square, EC4: Savills let 275,000 sq ft to Deloitte

Available supply diminished to 3.7 years and vacancy rates dropped below 10% as take-up in Midtown rose to more than 2.5m sq ft in 2015. This was 7.7% up on 2014 and on a par with 2013’s record numbers.

Key to this, said agents, has been the eastward drift of West End occupiers, and with average rents around £100 per sq ft, compared with £70 per sq ft in Midtown, it is something that could continue, provided space can be found.

Kevin McCauley, head of central London research at CBRE, says: “The eastward drift of West End occupiers to Midtown, the fringe and the City is due to three drivers: tightness of supply, strong rental growth and new developments in other locations.”

Savills’ Philip Pearce adds: “[Midtown] offers good-value grade-A space relative to the West End, but there is not a lot of it.”

Savills took the top spot for the year and the final quarter, acting on 855,082 sq ft and 220,764 sq ft respectively. This was helped by the firm acting on one of the largest deals of the year: the 275,000 sq ft letting at 1 New Street Square, EC4, to Deloitte.

With four deals contributing more than 800,000 sq ft to the total for Midtown in 2015, and with King’s Cross, N1, filling up, these totals could prove difficult to repeat in 2016.

Top 10 agents Q4 2015: Midtown

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Savills 220,764 6 29%
2 Cushman & Wakefield 207,088 5 27%
3 Farebrother 145,838 23 19%
4 CBRE 113,769 11 15%
5 Deloitte Real Estate 101,899 2 13%
6 Colliers International 52,702 7 7%
7 Monmouth Dean 28,830 4 4%
8 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 27,091 4 4%
9 JLL 25,340 5 3%
10 GM Real Estate 23,189 1 3%

Top 10 agents 2015: Midtown

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Savills 855,082 19 32%
2 CBRE 523,208 32 20%
3 Farebrother 396,500 75 15%
4 JLL 363,677 21 14%
5 Cushman & Wakefield 320,715 17 12%
6 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 230,869 7 9%
7 Colliers International 180,835 22 7%
8 Edward Charles & Partners 179,741 12 7%
9 Deloitte Real Estate 116,494 4 4%
10 Knight Frank 96,098 9 4%

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CITY FRINGE

Shoreditch
Shoreditch: maturing market

Perhaps justifying Colliers International’s year-end acquisition, Hatton Real Estate came up trumps for both the final quarter and the year in the City fringe agents league table.

It has been a remarkable year for the agent, which upped its disposals by almost six times its Q4 2014 total. No other agent has been able to get close.

However, 2015 may have been the year when conventional market forces caught up with the market.

Take-up rose to 2,218,782 sq ft – an increase of 18% on 2014 – to make 2015 the most successful year on record, but by the end of the year there was a growing recognition among agents that pricing and availability would start to slow the market.

Elaine Rossall, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield, says: “The cost benefit of locating in the fringe is being eroded, so it is about the environment, the building and the transport connectivity – everything that goes into the mix that means it can compete with the other markets.”

Harry Murphy, associate director at London Limited, agrees. “It is not rocket science: it is to do with the cost and the value of the fringe,” he says. “Your key areas in the City fringe are Clerkenwell and Shoreditch, where prices were £45 per sq ft in Q1 2014, but had risen to £65 per sq ft in Q4 2015.”

Top 10 agents Q4 2015: City fringe

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 159,088 21 26%
2 GM Real Estate 141,354 3 23%
3 Allsop 95,878 3 16%
4 CBRE 92,738 5 15%
5 Anton Page 84,543 11 14%
6 Cushman & Wakefield 74,830 8 12%
7 Savills 67,983 4 11%
8 Knight Frank 60,844 4 10%
9 JLL 57,028 4 9%
10 BNP Paribas Real Estate 53,301 2 9%

Top 10 agents 2015: City fringe

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 601,894 91 24%
2 CBRE 516,182 14 21%
3 JLL 443,168 11 18%
4 Knight Frank 405,550 8 16%
5 GM Real Estate 272,493 6 11%
6 Savills 271,803 10 11%
7 Allsop 252,421 19 10%
8 BNP Paribas Real Estate 192,412 7 8%
9 Anton Page 191,088 46 8%
10 Cushman & Wakefield 163,204 12 6%

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DOCKLANDS

Canary-Wharf
Canary Wharf: Crossrail will add to resilience

One deal dominated the Docklands market in 2015 and, unsurprisingly, the top two agents for the year acted on it.

Without the 339,000 sq ft letting at 10 Upper Bank Street, E14, total annual take-up was less than in 2014, but still generally above trend, standing at 1.2m sq ft, and more than 250,000 sq ft in Q4.

CBRE was leagues ahead of the competition, winning each individual quarter of the year and acting on 771,430 sq ft and taking more than 60% of the market.

Bilfinger GVA also managed a rapid ascendancy, despite acting on only two deals, barging its way into the top five.

Meanwhile, Cushman & Wakefield managed to put themselves into third place through a 37,000 sq ft letting at 5 Churchill Place, E14. Crossrail is poised to change the dynamic of the area, says CBRE’s Kevin McCauley, increasing public transport capacity, connectivity and resilience.

Despite this, stock market jitters at the beginning of 2016 may give pause for thought. ”If there is one place where the cooler winds of the global financial market will go, it is Canary,” says BNP Paribas Real Estate’s Dan Bayley.

Top 10 agents Q4 2015: Docklands

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 JLL 150,076 6 58%
2 GM Real Estate 116,268 5 45%
3 CBRE 98,278 6 38%
4 Knight Frank 55,298 4 21%
5 Cushman & Wakefield 37,568 2 15%
6 BNP Paribas Real Estate 28,496 1 11%
7 Gryphon Property Partners 16,874 3 7%
8 Cherryman 16,319 5 6%
9 Savills 4,015 1 2%
10 Dron & Wright 1,418 1 1%

Top 10 agents 2015: Docklands

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 CBRE 771,430 21 62%
2 Bilfinger GVA 415,650 2 33%
3 Cushman & Wakefield 298,547 18 24%
4 JLL 255,860 13 21%
5 GM Real Estate 222,052 12 18%
6 Knight Frank 207,451 16 17%
7 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 149,886 10 12%
8 Cherryman 107,263 18 9%
9 Gryphon Property Partners 37,213 8 3%
10 BNP Paribas Real Estate 28,496 1 2%

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SOUTHERN FRINGE

The-Shard-Southern-Fringe
London Bridge Quarter, SE1: almost fully let

South of the river, a final-quarter surge enabled Cushman & Wakefield to come top of the league tables in both Q4 and for the year.

Acting on just over 246,000 sq ft, C&W managed to pip JLL’s 232,000 sq ft for the year, although the fact that it managed to win with only seven deals illustrates how tight the market has become.

“I think you would have seen a lot more take-up had the supply been there,” says James Roberts, chief economist at Knight Frank. “And that bodes well for schemes in the offing.”

Through the acquisition of last year’s winners DTZ, C&W seems to have bought itself the title this year, though JLL has also managed a substantial rise up the table, to a number of lettings in the Shard, SE1, and a 70,000 sq ft sale at Tintagel House, SE1, to the Office Group.

The 67 deals in the southern fringe during 2015 were down on the 91 recorded in 2014, as was total take-up, which fell by 51%, from 1.4m sq ft to 664, 199 sq ft – a quarter of which was due to C&W’s 143,717 sq ft letting at Becket House, SE1.

Top 10 agents Q4 2015: Southern fringe

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Cushman & Wakefield 217,616 5 65%
2 JLL 50,794 4 15%
3 Knight Frank 48,506 3 15%
4 CBRE 27,181 3 8%
5 Lambert Smith Hampton 21,903 6 7%
6 Hanover Green 18,985 2 6%
7 Union Street Partners 12,224 3 4%
8 Colliers International 10,870 2 3%
9 Hiller & Partners 5,100 3 2%
10 BDG Sparkes Porter 5,100 3 2%

Top 10 agents 2015: Southern fringe

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 Cushman & Wakefield 246,187 7 31%
2 JLL 232,625 12 29%
3 Knight Frank 146,178 9 18%
4 CBRE 79,823 9 10%
5 Colliers International 63,690 8 8%
6 Hanover Green LLP 59,683 4 7%
7 Union Street Partners 54,119 6 7%
8 Lambert Smith Hampton 34,566 11 4%
9 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 26,597 3 3%
10 Hall Kemp 9,422 3 1%

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DATA DASHBOARD

LOMA-data-dashboard-Q3-2015
Click to enlarge

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TOP 25 AGENTS TO YEAR END 2015

Acquisitions

Rank Agency Sq ft No of Acqisitions
1 CBRE 1,962,259 85
2 JLL 1,566,605 54
3 Cushman & Wakefield 1,431,370 43
4 Kontor London 575,861 11
5 BNP Paribas Real Estate 488,543 16
6 Savills 454,995 38
7 Monmouth Dean 383,124 81
8 Colliers International 363,039 34
9 DeVono 347,659 43
10 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 232,639 21
11 Newton Perkins 220,585 29
12 Knight Frank 200,079 20
13 Bilfinger GVA 194,580 20
14 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 129,266 7
15 Deloitte Real Estate 127,583 11
16 Green Kinnear Real Estate Limited 118,995 8
17 Crossland Otter Hunt 111,972 18
18 Hall Kemp 102,663 8
19 Edward Charles & Partners 94,720 12
20 Workplace Company (The) 80,902 41
21 BDG Sparkes Porter 68,923 17
22 Gerald Eve 68,595 2
23 Carter Jonas 67,869 15
24 Mellersh & Harding 63,461 17
25 Ingleby Trice 62,613 12

Disposals

Rank Agency Disposed No of deals Market share
1 CBRE 3,885,912 268 23%
2 JLL 3,757,846 210 22%
3 Knight Frank 2,448,741 130 14%
4 Cushman & Wakefield 2,102,722 128 12%
5 Savills 2,102,717 111 12%
6 GM Real Estate 1,537,125 46 9%
7 BNP Paribas Real Estate 1,242,360 53 7%
8 DTZ (now part of Cushman & Wakefield) 1,161,197 75 7%
9 Colliers International 915,979 123 5%
10 Bilfinger GVA 745,336 50 4%
11 Hatton Real Estate (now part of Colliers Intl) 706,623 103 4%
12 Allsop 522,727 52 3%
13 Edward Charles & Partners 492,971 64 3%
14 Farebrother 463,378 87 3%
15 Ingleby Trice 383,367 53 2%
16 Strutt & Parker 358,874 70 2%
17 Newton Perkins 322,333 38 2%
18 Deloitte Real Estate 314,987 33 2%
19 Hanover Green LLP 247,789 35 1%
20 Monmouth Dean LLP 240,067 57 1%
21 Gryphon Property Partners 217,317 26 1%
22 Anton Page LLP 210,865 51 1%
23 Hall Kemp 161,708 29 1%
24 Paul Belchak & Company 151,309 19 1%
25 Tuckerman 142,223 34 1%

See also: Briefing – Mid-table magic

A trio of agents have more than doubled their year end totals in EGi’s London office league tables. Click here to find out who they are.

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