Hot on the heels of the previous Pint of Milk article, Return of Sellar’s London Bridge plans, here’s another on the subject of infrastructure and investment. Nope, it’s not Crossrail, nor is it Crossrail 2. It’s not even Heathrow or Gatwick, or even High Speed 2.
It’s the Brighton Main Line 2. No, I’d not heard of it until recently either.
Anyone who lives in the south coast or even south London will know the issues with Southern Railway. With ongoing strikes and a reduced service on the Brighton to London route, apparently one of the most overcrowded rail routes in the country, it’s been a recipe for huge upheaval. However, long before this summer’s issues, plans had been afoot to reopen lines dealt a blow by Dr Beeching, as well as building entirely new routes so they all join up. The project known as BML2 will link Brighton with Croydon and on to Lewisham, Canary Wharf, Stratford and finally Stanstead.
Are these plans all a pipe dream? Well, probably. In October 2015, the secretary of state for transport commissioned a study to look into how capacity might be increased between the Sussex coast and London. That study has yet to be published. This followed on from then-chancellor George Osborne’s commitment to investigate BML2 in his 2015 Summer Budget.
The plans could effectively become a Crossrail 3, linking Croydon with Stratford and, further afield, Gatwick with Stanstead. With airport capacity a huge topic of debate at the moment, Stanstead is crying out for investment, especially as it has spare capacity, something both Heathrow and Gatwick don’t have. If it’s easier to get there, people will surely be more willing to fly from it, opening up new routes in the process.
This project not only solves capacity issues, it also offers opportunities for investment and growth, especially in the east of the city where much of London is gravitating towards. When interest rates for government borrowing are at records lows, now is the time to invest in infrastructure. As ever though, wherever big projects like this are revealed, huge controversies and political point-scoring are never far behind. The upcoming report and its possible actions will make for interesting reading.
Meanwhile, just last week Govia Thameslink Railway announced a major shakeup of the railways it runs. That includes Thameslink, Southern, Great Northern and South Eastern. Consultation is now under way with huge alterations to the timetable planned for 2018. Essentially, the= company’s objective is for a “turn up and go” railway where trains are evenly spaced throughout the network and for more self-contained routes, in order to improve reliability. Some critics could argue the timing of these proposals are to hold off any advances from a TfL takeover, which many including Sadiq Khan are calling for, with the Turn South London Orange proposal.
In short, some lines will see many more trains whilst others unfortunately will see a reduction and, in some severe cases, complete removal of services. For instance, the Beckenham Junction to London Blackfriars service will be withdrawn completely. This of course frees up space elsewhere, so the route to London Bridge from Beckenham Junction will subsequently increase. Scanning the consultation pages, it appears stations like Tulse Hill and Mill Hill Broadway will reap the benefits. Trains from Tulse Hill to London Bridge and London Blackfriars (in the morning peak – 7am to 10am) will increase from 13 to 18, and 11 to 18 respectively. Equally, the Mill Hill Broadway to King’s Cross train will increase from 15 to 24 in the morning peak (7am to 10am).
With many trains running with over-capacity at both the morning and evening rush hour, commuters will likely want to settle where a reliable, frequent and not too sardine-like route will take them to work. As ever with these changes, there’ll be some winners and some losers, so investors and homeowners alike could do much worse than look at these proposals with an eye on likely demand for housing in the coming years.
