COMMENT So – finally, finally – the prime minister ends the prevarication and procrastination, the dither and delay, and has confirmed that HS2 will go ahead in its entirety – a whole 10 years after first being announced.
The entire line will be built, not just the London to Crewe section (about which I was fairly confident, not least because it is already covered by primary legislation, though even that had begun to look shaky) but the whole of Phase 2b, covering the Crewe to Manchester and the Midlands to Leeds stretches.
Hallelujah! This is a cause for serious celebration, particularly among we market-facing folk. And Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands, is to be congratulated on never deserting the cause, even when it became hugely unfashionable. Instead, he patiently pointed out, repeatedly, that this is, first and foremost, a project for economic growth, and that a huge number of companies (not least of all HSBC) had already made significant decisions to invest in non-London conurbations, on the back of this exciting proposal. And that we couldn’t let them down.
This announcement is made just in time. And thank goodness. I have seen the effect that the HS2 proposals have on potential inward investors: it is like catnip, particularly to Chinese money. To have pulled the plug now, as we enter negotiations for trade deals across the globe, would have been tantamount to a bald announcement that the UK is “closed for business”. Not a good look.
But what a fiasco! What failing of political courage we have seen in recent months. Why were we subject to such (to coin a phrase) dither, delay and uncertainty? Given the current climate, how could this project ever have been in doubt? How could any government that pledges to “level up” towns in the North, and spend billions on infrastructure, possibly wobble about so much?
I go further: just how much shocking vacillation on infrastructure and planning have you ever seen from a new government with a whopping majority? It is mightily depressing. I see that Boris Johnson has even had the gall to start chanting “Get High Speed Done” in and around parliament, and in interviews with reporters. It makes me feel quite ill.
Too much at risk
Of course, in reality, HS2 was always going to go ahead – at least as far as Crewe. Too much money has already been spent. And too much is at risk. Only last week, No 10 had to be warned, in the starkest of terms, that 400 companies would immediately go under if HS2 was canned. Compulsory purchase orders have been triggered on signal properties; indeed, some have even been demolished already. And we were pretty well past the point of no return for this major infrastructure undertaking, at least as far as Crewe.
Add to this the fact that there is no way this government could possibly have gone into the next General Election having remotely met its humungous pledges on infrastructure had it begun its term by cancelling the flagship project that is so very far along in thinking and implementation. Boris Johnson’s “levelling up” ambitions for the UK could never have been squared by binning the HS2 project. It was unthinkable.
Infrastructure-focused consultants and contractors and product and component suppliers can now breathe a sigh of relief. And they will be joined by all of us who care about the future of the UK economy, not least of all the property industry. It is a massive positive for our entire sector.
OK… so the government has also had to announce a major review into the budget for the line past Phase 2b, in order to seek cost savings, as the final bill is now estimated at up to £106bn – triple the original budget. That’s uncomfortable. But why wasn’t any discipline on this stuff baked in properly from the start? The failure to keep the costs within budget on this, as with Crossrail, is lamentable, and must be properly addressed now, not as an afterthought. As should issues of climate change.
But far worse than these failings has been the pathetic failure of political will to argue the case for this vital investment as the crucial foundation to rebuilding our economy. Let this be a lesson to us all: infrastructure projects should never be framed in terms of journey times or capacity on routes; the narrative must always start with their ability to stimulate investment into homes and jobs. You sell the sizzle, not the sausage. Infrastructure projects are not about engineering, they are about building our economy. Thank heavens the Victorians were never in any doubt.
Jackie Sadek is chief operating officer at UK Regeneration
