Since calling the top of the market in early 2007, buying agent Henry Pryor has made more than 600 appearances on radio and TV. Here he reveals where he thinks the market is now – and where there are discounts to be found.
How did you become a “property expert”?
On leaving school in 1983 I worked for Savills for 10 years and then went on to run the country house department in London for Strutt & Parker. I left to set up the first of what became known as the “affiliate groups”, the London Office for provincial estate agents. After 12 years I sold my interest and started an ill-fated multi-listing business called Charles Lister (my middle names). In 2006 this business was bought by Lonres.com. To the annoyance of some of my professional colleagues, I suggested that we may have witnessed the top of the housing market. The FT was brave enough to run the story and it led to my first interview on the Today programme. At that stage there had been no queues outside Northern Rock branches and we hadn’t heard of a “credit crunch”. Flatteringly described subsequently on both radio and TV as “the BBC’s favourite property expert”, I have since made more than 600 appearances on radio and TV.
You’re well known for calling the top of the market in 2007 and again in 2014. Where are we now in the property cycle?
Where we are now depends on where you are in the country. In London and the South East I suspect that we are in a sliding market where your home today may be worth 10% less than it was a year ago. As you move away from the South East the market is probably peaking as buyers struggle with affordability and sellers find that they no longer hold the upper hand. Here prices will soften over the next 12 months but I don’t foresee a crash as such.
How is the slowdown in sales of luxury homes in central London affecting pricing? Are there significant discounts to be had?
Yes, there are some significant discounts being offered on some new-build properties, 20-30% is not unheard of and there are whole developments for sale as those funding these schemes start to appreciate just how tough this winter will be. Even if we didn’t build another single flat, there is 14 months of unsold inventory out there. This is a great time to be a buyer, but it is still possible to make a huge mistake. I expect the Christmas sales to be spectacular.
Is buying a high-end property to rent out a good business plan right now?
Not generally. There is much more supply of high-end rental property, yields are still too low, but there is increasing tenant demand, which may help prop up rents at current levels.
What is the most frequent problem or challenge you help your clients to navigate in the buying process?
Understanding that an asking price is not an indication of “value”. I have to remind both sellers and my own buying clients that it is the buyer who decides what something is worth and the seller who has the luxury of deciding if it’s enough. Many buyers are concerned about upsetting the seller or their agent if they make a low offer. My own view is that the asking price is either an indication of the seller’s greed or the agent’s enthusiasm to get the instruction. You make money when you buy, not when you sell. The buyer has the ultimate choice of not buying rather than risking overpaying.
What is the most unusual thing a private client has enlisted your help to buy?
A current search: if anyone has a two-bed flat with a proper climbing wall in it then I have a client with £1.5m looking for just such a thing within Zone 1 in London please. A converted school building perhaps, or a building with a double-height reception room. Anyone?
What’s your favourite way to source a property deal?
From an old fashioned, proper estate agent. They know how to look after their client, I can look after mine, ideally off-market without the media or other agents complicating it, and done so that both parties feel they have got a fair deal. Always leave something on the table for the other side.
Would you call yourself a property investor? How would you describe your portfolio?
I’m not a property investor, I’m a spiv. I’m a dealer who bids on a house every week and buys one once a month. I am fortunate to know a lot of very bright people who make me look good. Clever lawyers, switched on mortgage brokers, imaginative architects and interior designers and professional tradesmen. I’m just the conductor.
This article appears in the latest edition of EG’s Property Auction Buyers’ Guide. Click here to register for your copy.
