You’d be as likely to find consensus at a dinner party between the prime minister and her chancellor this week as you would among delegates calling the market at MIPIM. The word Brexit may trip easily off the tongues of everyone in Cannes, from the visiting student delegation from Wisconsin to the majority French contingent looking to capitalise on UK uncertainty. But among the many, many UK visitors (acting with a renewed sense of professionalism? I think so), there are myriad views on what 2017 holds.
Talk to sovereign wealth funds and they will hint that they left MIPIM 2016 sensing the top of the UK market. Many are leaving MIPIM 2017 convinced that we are at this cycle’s high-water mark. Their next steps might determine whether we are.
In their less effusive moments, London agents acknowledge contradictory signals. “For every Cheesegrater there is a New Covent Garden Market,” said one. And if British Land and Oxford Properties’ £1.1bn sale of the Leadenhall Building to CC Land had buoyed confidence, the withdrawal from negotiations of the prospective purchaser of St Modwen and Vinci’s prize asset provided a reality check.
And the referendum? Yes, as one Chinese investor put it: “You in the UK see Brexit as huge, but back home in China we see this as a first-world problem,” but it doesn’t make it any less of a problem, at least in the short term.
Among some public sector delegates there was a sense of impatience, of a window closing. Some of that impatience is necessitated by electoral cycles, much more by a need to deliver on campaign commitments.
London mayor Sadiq Khan – not present in Cannes this week, though his deputies Jules Pipe and James Murray were – is committed to delivering 90,000 affordable homes by 2021. The government’s ambition is for one million by 2020. Neither is remotely plausible unless more spades break ground soon.
The mantra from the mayor’s office is that London is open for business – which would be more compelling if it were delivered by Khan himself. After all, both his predecessors, Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson, seldom missed the show.
From government ministers the message was similar. Here in relative force, they talked of “making a global statement” at MIPIM. Commercial secretary to the Treasury Baroness Neville-Rolfe, Department for International Trade minister Mark Garnier and housing minister Gavin Barwell were all in campaign mode, championing the UK. For the first time there was a UK government pavilion, alongside enlarged presences from Manchester and Birmingham.
On those stands and beyond, regional investors were more bullish, especially the more opportunistic ones. Nevertheless, their focus is largely on core cities. As ever, not all regions are equal.
“Cautious optimism” has been by a landslide the most common verdict on the prospects for UK real estate in 2017, though another phrase runs it close: “It’s going to be a rollercoaster.”
Many thanks to those of you who have sent feedback on our rebrand, magazine redesign and online overhaul. We’re delighted – and, yes, relieved – it has been so well received. And we are taking seriously the areas where some of you have said we can further improve. We are adding new features to the website all the time: soon you will be able to personalise your experience and ensure you can access the content you need more quickly. Do let us know what else you would like to see EG offer.
To send feedback, e-mail damian.wild@egi.co.uk or tweet @DamianWild or @estatesgazette
