A second referendum for Scottish independence is “unavoidable”, according to Ian Wall, board director of the Scottish Council for Development and Industry.
Wall made the comment at Estates Gazette’s Edinburgh Question Time event while on a panel of industry heavyweights, discussing key issues affecting Scotland’s property market.
“The UK government hasn’t prepared for Brexit one jot – if they were running a company they would be kicked out. The question will be, do the Scottish people feel – having rejected independence in light of their desire to stay in the EU – balanced between the two? A referendum is inevitable and unavoidable.
“If England and Wales leave and we stay, I think we become very attractive as a place to invest. But we have to have a national position. You could not have just the English or Scottish government making a decision.”
Chris Harte, chief executive of Morton Fraser, emphasised there was a delicate balancing act for the SNP to perform.
“You can maybe lose one referendum but you can’t lose two. It would be difficult now to feel confident about it but they still have to keep the debate alive without rushing headlong into it,” he said.
“Until we know what the UK’s relationship with the EU will be, how can you ask anyone to assess what Scotland’s relationship with the UK will be? For that reason, I don’t think there will be a headline rush to it but I think that creates further uncertainty.”
But panellists all agreed that while Brexit could open opportunities in the Scottish market, combined with the prospect of a second independence referendum, the uncertainty was bad for Scotland. Bryan Sheriff, investment director at Drum Property Group, said SNP should “concentrate on running Scotland”.
“Talk is cheap,” he said. “If they thought they would win, they would have done it, but they haven’t so let’s move on. Whether it’s north or south of the border, everyone is bored of the discussion.”
Nick Penny, head of Scotland at Savills, said: “I think [Nicola Sturgeon] could gain a huge amount of credibility if she shows us she is using the devolved powers she has been given widely to benefit individuals and businesses, and then perhaps look at it further down the line, but I guess one thing that keeps the SNP together and reason they exist is independence. But is the uncertainty about independence damaging to our industry? My view is yes.”
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