COMMENT How many new homes are now required to realise the economic potential of the Oxford-Cambridge Arc? The government’s consultation for the Arc sidesteps this issue for now.
To some extent the number will be informed by the spatial framework “vision” itself. The figure of “up to 1 million” new homes put forward by the National Infrastructure Commission in 2017 will need to be reviewed alongside this work.
The housing need of the Arc also really depends on an up-to-date assessment of how the economic need and potential of the Arc should be best realised. The Arc itself is geographically an artificial construct, with currently limited overlap in housing market areas, business activity and travel-to-work patterns. This is due to the predominance of north-south links compared to relatively poor east-west links, and the development of the current towns and cities that have organically developed their own economic markets.
These include life sciences in Cambridge, the energy cluster in Oxfordshire and the digital innovation cluster in Milton Keynes. How far connecting these independent clusters east to west will stimulate new economic activity within the Arc needs re-examination. The balance between catering for Arc-generated growth and helping cater for the acute shortfall in London housing needs also needs to be more honestly and transparently dealt with politically. Hopefully the assessments underpinning the “Vision for the Arc” and the subsequent spatial framework will provide a robust basis to withstand scrutiny.
Choice of location
The consultation for the spatial framework states that it will identify “the most sustainable locations for new homes, including identifying opportunity areas”, and policies that will enable “new settlements to come forward at the scale and speed needed”.
In a February policy paper, the government had confirmed it would continue to “examine the case for new and/or expanded settlements, including options informed by possible East West Rail stations between Bedford and Cambridge, and growth options at Cambridge itself”. This takes forward, but also evolves, the NIC’s 2017 report, which stated that “East West Rail and the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway provide a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unlock land for new settlements”.
The Expressway proposal was cancelled in March, shortly after the policy paper on the Arc was published, although some of the highways improvement components will still be delivered piecemeal. Thus, the potential locations for new settlements are now more reliant on potential East-West Rail station connectivity and existing north-south links.
Areas of particular focus include near the potential new station at St Neots or Tempsford, an expansion of Camborne around the proposed new Camborne North or South station, and locations around Bedford, Biggleswade and South Cambridge. Other locations such as Calvert are also expected to come forward, though the remit of the expert panel appointed to advise Government is initially concentrating on the Bedford to Cambridge area of the Arc.
There will also be more emphasis on “expanded” settlements, including continued expansion at Milton Keynes and Bedford, as well as the “new” settlements given the downgrading/ditching of the Expressway plans. That would dovetail well with the existing town and city-based growth clusters, which have developed organically.
Placemaking with purpose
The vision consultation, as expected, places a strong emphasis on place-making. Natural capital, sustainability and quality of life feature components feature heavily, aiming to ensure the Arc settlements are great places to live and work. Specifically aligning new settlement locations with best-in-class “Arc-wide” and local industry clusters could also be an important component of successful “next generation” new settlement place-making. If new settlements could be promoted as being affiliated with those clusters, alongside local universities that have global research standing, this would truly represent an opportunity to project a brand on the world stage. This would take to a new level the success stories of co-locating science parks near major housing schemes. This could really help project the “Global Arc, Global Britain” brand more strongly internationally.
The Arc will benefit significantly from a focused delivery agenda. The aim of attracting institutional capital investment alongside government support will only be met if there is a real focus on delivery and viability. Growth bodies will need to work with all the relevant local authorities, LEPs, developers and stakeholders to ensure a successful co-ordinated delivery approach. The digital consultation outreach should also help engender public involvement on a larger scale than ever before. The remit of the expert panel advising government includes delivery and investment models alongside design and sustainability. It is hoped that a viable plan to deliver a 21st century vision will be forthcoming. The Arc concept has been around for over 20 years in various guises. Now is the time for delivery.
Richard Ford is a partner at Pinsent Masons
