Estates Gazette’s Autumn Statement 2016 round-up

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Ben Cawthra/LNP/REX/Shutterstock (5614322b) Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne posing for photographers outside 11 Downing Street before presenting his budget to Parliament Budget Day, Downing Street, London, Britain - 16 Mar 2016

Philip Hammond’s first Autumn Statement – what it means for property and the key announcements for the industry.


ANALYSIS: INDUSTRY REACTS TO THE AUTUMN STATEMENT

Estates Gazette spoke to the great and the good of the industry to get their reaction to the Autumn Statement.

From Legal & General’s Bill Hughes, Toscafund’s Savaas Savouri and Centre for Cities’ Alexandra Jones, there was no shortage of opinion, not least what was omitted from the document.

Listen to the podcast hosted by EG head of finance David Hatcher for full analysis of the impact on property, with contribution from residential reporter Alexander Peace and policy reporter Louisa Clarence-Smith.


HAMMOND’S HIDDEN HOMES DELIVERY DELAY

Chancellor Philip Hammond’s £8bn of funding to build 155,000 homes, announced in the Autumn Statement, will see just 17,300 homes funded next year and 28,800 the year after.

Much of the funding will not kick in until 2020-21 and the numbers outlined are only for enabling, rather than actual delivery, to which there are further obstacles, such as planning. More…


FIVE TAKEAWAYS FROM HAMMOND’S FIRST AND LAST AUTUMN STATEMENT

While it may not have been a bumper Autumn Statement for property, there was the obligatory announcements on housing and more promises of funds to speed up house building. Here are the five things you need to know.

1 National Productivity Investment Fund: which will provide for £23bn of spending between 2017-18 and 2021-22

A housing infrastructure fund, funded by the NPIF, is targeted at unlocking new private house building in those areas where need is greatest. It is expected to deliver as many as 100,000 new homes.

To further boost affordable housing the government will relax restrictions on grant funding to allow providers to deliver a mix of homes for affordable rent and low cost ownership, to meet the housing needs of people in different circumstances and at different stages of their lives.

The NPIF will provide an additional £1.4bn to deliver an additional 40,000 housing starts by 2020-21.

The NPIF will also be used to increase construction of homes on public sector plan. Government announced a pilot scheme for this in October, to be backed up with £2bn of funding. Some £1.7bn of that will come from the NPIF.

national-productivity-investment-fund

2 Infrastructure

National Infrastructure Commission gets fiscal remit. It is to set out recommendations to government working on the assumption that spending on infrastructure should be between 1% and 1.2% of GDP each year from 2020 to 2050. The government will still take all final spending decisions though.

3 Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Corridor – the UK’s equivalent to Silicon Valley

Government commits to £137m of funding. £27m for Ox-Cambs Expressway, £100m for East-West Rail line western section and £10m for the central section.

4 Local Enterprise Funds to get £1.8bn and a Northern Powerhouse plan

  • £556m to North of England
  • £392m to the Midlands
  • £151m to the East of England
  • £429m to London and the South East
  • £191m to the South West

Chancellor Philip Hammond said: “This funding of local infrastructure will improve transport connections, unlock house building, boost skills, and enhance digital connectivity.

“The government will give mayoral combined authorities powers to borrow for their new functions, which will allow them to invest in economically productive infrastructure, subject to agreeing a borrowing cap with HM Treasury. The government will also consult on lending local authorities up to £1 billion at a new local infrastructure rate of gilts + 60bps for three years to support infrastructure projects that are high value for money.”

5 Business rates

Properties over a rateable value of £100,000 will see the transitional relief caps – designed to limit and more gradually phase in any sudden increase in their rates –  lowered from 45% to 42% in 2017-2018 and then from 50% to 32% the year after. The change will help but will still mean they can see huge hikes in their bills before the ceiling to ease the pain kicks in.

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ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM THE AUTUMN STATEMENT

Click here to download the full Autumn StatementPDF-logo

Click here to download the Office of Budget Responsibility document

PDF-logo


• LISTEN: Planning must back up government housing commitment

The government must move to make sure that the planning system facilities its investment into affordable homes to ensure it translates into delivery according to Cain Hoy chief executive, Jonathan Goldstein.

“The question is in reality how is that [affordable housing commitment] going to be spent, who is going to use that money and how effectively will it be used? Also, what help in the planning process is the government suggesting to speed up the housing coming to fruition? It is often the planning process that is the biggest frustration to the growth of housing in England and the government needs to focus on that as well as pumping money in.”

• No concessions were needed from Hammond


Bill-Hughes-THUMBThe real estate industry did not receive major fiscal bonuses from Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement but neither was property was not in need of them according to head of real assets at Legal and General Investment Management, Bill Hughes.

There was no u-turn on the government’s stance on stamp duty, nor concessions on business rates but this was to be expected given the health of the property industry said Hughes: “The chancellor is painted into a pretty tight corner in terms of what he can he do with not a huge amount of expenditure to deploy.

I wasn’t expecting miracles and my view of real assets in the current environment is we have huge amounts of opportunity and we don’t really need government to subsidise or change the rules to deliver additional corners of opportunity.”

• LISTEN: Infrastructure spend and devolution should boost regional investment

Andy Pyle KPMGThe increased spend in infrastructure and devolution of powers to local government should help promote further investment in regional property according to Andy Pyle, KPMG’s UK head of real estate.

Chancellor Philip Hammond committed capital to Local Enterprise Partnerships as well as technology investments to better connect more isolated areas of the country.

“For those investors that are looking to invest across the UK regions rather than just focusing on London there is £1.8bn going into LEPs and an additional £1bn to broadband connections and 5G networks and that, together with city deals and devolving more power to local government, should make the regions more attractive to invest in for the commercial property sector going forward,” Pyle said.

“It will take some time for this to filter through but given the agenda the government has got with the Midlands Engine and Northern Powerhouse I think that will be positive for the market.” 

COMMENT: Real opportunity at a difficult time

caroline-mcdade-thumbThe property industry, like many other sectors of the economy, dislikes uncertainty and this is a period of uncertainty. However, as Winston Churchill said: “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty, writes Caroline McDade, director in the London planning team at Deloitte Real Estate.

• LISTEN: More detail on Northern infrastructure investment needed’ – Peel managing director Myles Kitcher reacts to the Autumn Statement

• LISTEN: Useful pots of money but insufficient in and of themselves, says Adam Challis, head of residential research at JLL

• LISTEN: Industry must be involved in infrastructure spending

david-partridgeThe property industry needs to be involved in the process of how to best spend the infrastructure and affordable homes commitments made in the Autumn Statement in order for it to be used effectively, according to Argent managing director David Partridge.

Hammond announced a £2.3bn infrastructure fund to unlock new homes in areas of high demand as well as £1.4bn to deliver 40,000 additional affordable homes.

Partridge said: “The critical thing to see is turning that commitment into real activity on the ground. I hope the sector will be given the opportunity to bring forward some ideas as to how we can leverage off that and do our bit to begin to start to create those vital homes and as a way to get the engine going on construction and all the social benefits from building homes.”

“We really need to take that opportunity and get the whole property sector to turn that into a whole bunch of positive outcomes.”

Government housing spend set to double

EG rounds up the key points from Philip Hammond’s announcements at this year’s Autumn Statement.

• LISTEN: CBRE’s Miles Gibson on Autumn Statement: ‘good news for housing, worrying absence of reference to commercial property’

Lawyers respond to Autumn Statement

In the wake of Philip Hammond’s announcements, property lawyers have had their say on what his changes mean for various areas of the sector.

• Susan Emmet, director of residential research at Savills, says the Autumn Statement is good news for other tenures and housing associations, while Starter Homes are again conspicuous for their absence.

• LISTEN: BPF’s head of policy Ian Fletcher on the key Autumn Statement takeaways

• Growth forecasts would be a “fantastic result”

David-Marks-Brockton-THUMB.jpegThe Office of Budget Responsibility’s growth forecasts for the coming five years would be a “fantastic result” according to Brockton Capital’s co-founder, David Marks.

The OBR is predicted steady growth throughout, peaking in 2019 and 2020 at 2.1%.

“A mid 1% up to 2% real GDP growth in the next few years, straddling either side of the proposed Brexit in 2019, if delivered, would be a fantastic result for the economy given the potential downside that Brexit could cause,” said Marks. “That is more than avoiding a recession. It’s not stellar, it’s not 3%, but it’s not bad all things considered. Can it be really be delivered though?”

OBR Growth forecasts

Year

%

2016

2.1

2017

1.4

2018

1.7

2019

2.1

2020

2.1

2021

2

• LISTEN: Retail companies given a boost by Hammond

• LISTEN: Simon Ricketts, partner at King & Wood Mallesons: What are we waiting for from the housing white paper?

Business still faces rate rises

Big businesses will still face large rate rises, and the transitional rate relief caps to give them time to adjust to higher bills are still set too high, according to tax specialists.

• LISTEN: Philip Hammond is wrong: rate relief changes are not good news for business, says John Webber from Colliers International

• LISTEN: Hammond’s low-key statement a “dream budget”

• LISTEN: Davis Montague, chief executive of L&Q, tells Estates Gazette why the Autumn Statement was great news for housing associations.

David-SleathThe BPF welcomes the government’s commitment to maintain economic stability and business confidence in the lead-up to Britain exiting the European Union, as outlined in the Autumn Statement today. It is crucial for Britain to remain competitive in a global market, and for our nation to remain a leading destination for investment and talent.

We welcome the chancellor’s support for infrastructure projects, as demonstrated by the government’s recent decision to back a third runway at Heathrow as well as the further announcements today. Infrastructure investment is often a vital catalyst to encourage regeneration of our cities, economic growth and real estate investment.

It is also good news for the house building industry that the Chancellor has injected an extra £1.4bn into the Affordable Homes Programme, allowing for an extra 40,000 homes to be built, which will be used to help first-time buyers, existing shared owners who wish to move and former houseowners who can no longer afford to buy.”

David Sleath, chief executive of SEGRO and president of the British Property Federation

• LISTEN: Walter Boettcher, chief economist at Colliers International, talks to Estates Gazette about the macro economic effect of the autumn statement on the property market.

edward_cooke_bcscWhile the chancellor’s commitment to reduce the cap on next year’s increase for large properties – over a rateable value £100,000 – from 45% to 42% in 2017-18, and then from 50% to 32% the year after will be welcomed by some, failure to give businesses the tax reduction they deserve could send some to the wall.

The chancellor failed to mention anything about reform of the opaque appeals system – which research shows could cost small and medium sized businesses almost £700m.”

Edward Cooke, chief executive at retail property body Revo

• OBR forecasts at a glance

obr-forecasts-at-a-glance

• Stamp Duty revenues will rise by 54% by 2022

  • A new National Productivity Investment Fund will add £23bn in high-value investment from 2017-18 to 2021-22. The government will target this spending at areas that it says are critical for productivity: housing; research and development (R&D); and economic infrastructure. The NPIF will take total spending in these areas to £170 billion over the period from 2017-18 to 2021-22, reaching 1.7% of GDP in 2021-22. The new spending includes £7.2bn to support the construction of new homes, including spending by Housing Associations
  •  The government will raise productivity across the UK. The government is publishing the Northern Powerhouse strategy, allocating £1.8bn funding for regions through the Local Growth Fund, continuing discussions with the West Midlands and London on future devolution deals, and continuing to pursue city deals in Scotland and Wales.

• LISTEN: Centre for Cities chief executive Alexandra Jones – Big gaps were skills investment and devo deals for Leeds and West Yorkshire

• Government support for the Northern Powerhouse

nph_strategy_web-13

• Northern Powerhouse strategy published

A Northern Powerhouse strategy has been published by the government, with an additional £556m committed for northern local enterprise partnerships.

russell-gardner-eyMeasures to address the UK’s housing supply crisis are welcome, but must represent the start of a major commitment to building significantly more homes across the UK.

The headline numbers are eye-catching but it requires a stretch of the imagination to believe that new homes supply can be unlocked for £23,000 each or an affordable house can be built for £35,000. We eagerly await the Housing White Paper and hope it contains more radical structural proposals.

The private rent sector has a critical role to play in the UK’s housing landscape and banning agents from charging tenants letting fees has popular appeal. It may, however, have a sting in the tail with landlords increasing rents rather than absorbing agents’ costs.

Given the lack of housing supply and other recent measures aimed at buy to let landlords there is a real risk here that tenants will end up picking up the bill again.”

Russell Gardner, head of real estate at EY

• EG ANALYSIS: business rates

We are still remain unclear on what the chancellor meant by transitional business rates relief and if it is enough to help those about to receive the largest rates bills. London’s worst affected areas, those expecting a rates bill with a 10% plus rise, have more than 19m sq ft at risk of being left vacant.

Of that 19m sq ft at risk, 30% is financial and 20% is TMT.

space-with-a-lease-expiry-or-break-due-by-2020

juliette-morganTECH: Investment to push UK to the forefront of future technology is extremely laudable but the government must follow up with proper delivery and overcome sticking points such as the planning system in order for the potential benefits to be realised.

The ongoing struggle with rural broadband in many parts of the country shows the pitfalls of a half-hearted approach to rolling out technology.

Investing in new technologies has greater potential to deliver a positive return for the exchequer than investment in costly but old-fashioned options.

We are in the early stages of the internet of things but it has the potential to fundamentally alter our everyday lives in a positive way, boosting efficiency and productivity. But again, we can only benefit if government overcomes the hurdles.”

Juliette Morgan, global head of tech for Cushman & Wakefield

paul-eastonMany expected little reference to business rates in the Autumn Statement and while the announcements will effect only a small percentage of ratepayers, at least it got a mention. 

The proposed caps on next year’s increase in business rates for large properties (over rateable value £100,000) will be reduced from 45% to 43% in 2017-18 and then from 50% to 32% the year after. Whilst business rate payers will welcome this very modest adjustment in the first year its hardly significant and more importantly there was no mention in the speech to the penal phasing in of reductions in business rate liabilities following the revaluation.

We will have to wait until the full statement is published shortly to see if its hidden in there. I suspect not, as this would have been much more popular with ratepayers.”

Paul Easton, head of business rates at Lambert Smith Hampton

• 2.05pm: New £2.3bn Housing Infrastructure Fund by 2020-21 to be allocated to local government on a competitive basis.

julian-goddardReputable agents do not use fees as an excuse to rip off renters, but to cover the administrative costs of processing a tenancy. Banning fees will likely to see landlords recoup the costs through other ways, additional stamp duty; reduced mortgage relief and other regulatory burdens will see a reduced supply of rental properties, despite demand for private rental accommodation being at an all time high.”

Julian Goddard, head of residential and partner at property advisors Daniel Watney

• Opportunities in the Cambridge/Milton Keynes/Oxford corridor – UK’s Silicon Valley

  • Between 2012 and 2015 the average number of homes built each year in the corridor was 12,250 – 3,700 fewer that required to deliver local plan commitments and 7,900 fewer than the assessed need. 65% increase in annual delivery needed.
  • NIC research found more than 300 potential development sites across the corridor that could provide 400,000 new homes. Only 14% of the sites are under construction and 65% yet to apply for planning.

Savvas Savouri, ToscafundThis is light years from the dark narrative we were told would be contained in a post-Brexit “emergency Budget”. Notably missing from Philip Hammond’s inaugural statement as Chancellor was any mention of the dreaded word recession, something we were told would inevitably follow a vote to leave.

Not only no nightmare GDP forecasts, but an upgrade to growth expected this year. Moreover, we have been presented with an OBR forecast for 2017 which I would say is measured and near certain to be beaten. To be clear, were those active in the UK equity market on June23rd  to have anticipated such a statement four months after a vote to leave, the downwards correction in the FTSE250 would not only not have happened, but we would have seen a near waterfront rally.

This is not to claim the pound wouldn’t have fallen, it does such a thing on every occasion the UK has been faced with change/uncertainty; all the more wonder the US dollar is rising in the wake of the US Presidential shock. What I am simply saying is that a great many UK facing firms would not have suffered the febrile share price falls they experienced in the aftermath of the referendum. And most notable here I refer to property related stocks; from homebuilders to REITS and others relying on the asset backing of various forms of UK property.

True there was no repeal of Osborne’s stamp duty surcharge of a year ago. No less true is that in leaving it in place the new chancellor saw no need to “support” the residential market, a endorsement as it were in the demand-side fundamentals of our residential market. On the supply-side the chancellor’s initiatives were not heavy handed but targeted  and I would argue symbolic rather than substantive. The chancellor has in effect said the private sector is best placed to deliver new supply of housing where needed, without a great deal of intervention.

On devolution the chancellor did little more than show that the initiatives set in motion by George Osborne will continue, Quite rightly the new chancellor made much of how our recent economic growth has been strongest outside of London and so too labour market conditions, all supporting a positive outlook for regional commercial real estate markets. In short, this was not the nightmare were we warned awaited us but a statement one could have only dreamt of through the night of June 23.”

Savvas Savouri, chief economist Tosca Fund

graham-shone-07-sqOn the commercial side we are still waiting anxiously to find out what the net result of increased property tax in the capital is going to be. According to the draft release there are some parts of central London which could see tax on office space increase by upwards of 20% come next April (source Knight Frank).

2017-rating-revolution-impact-on-business-rates-across-london

EGi London Offices data indicates that there is 19.1 million SQ FT of let office space within those areas which is either due to expire, or the subject of a lease break before the end of 2020 – with 30% of that space attributed to financial occupiers, which of course may need to re-evaluate location-based decisions depending on the exact nature of Brexit.

Today we heard that transitional relief on business rates will be slightly more generous – but we’ll have to wait on the confirmation of figures in that draft release to ascertain the full impact on London.

 The other side of this is that retailers operating regionally will be due, in most cases, a tax reduction in their business spaces – a measure as welcome as it is overdue.”

sq-ft-due-to-expire-in-london-by-2020

Graham Shone, senior analyst EGi

• Hammond’s ‘economy for everyone’

Philip Hammond has released his first Autumn Statement as chancellor and the first budget to be released since the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

• 1.24pm: Letting agents will be banned from charging letting fees.

Colin-Wilson-DTZ-new-THUMB.jpegThe chancellor’s commitment to the ‘brain belt’ expressway between Oxford and Cambridge is very welcome. Investors seek both high speed physical and digital communications and this will do much to increase investment and opportunity across a broad swathe of the country.

Whatever the scenario of our exit, the UK needs an infrastructure that will either help offset the negative aspects of our departure or take advantage of the opportunities it might offer. It must also be designed to protect our position as a world leading economy.  In a low cost/low growth environment it is the perfect way for the government to influence economic activity.

So far, Brexit has certainly created a heightened level of uncertainty in the economy that has also increased the aversion to risk for many. That’s why we are pleased the Chancellor has provided some detail on specific infrastructure projects across the UK. Plans with tangible, measurable benefits will likely prompt further investment from the private sector to leverage the government stimulus.”

Colin Wilson, head of UK and Ireland for Cushman & Wakefield

• 1.18pm: Large businesses will always pay tax when they make substantial profits, says Hammond.

• 1.16pm: Business rates will have more generous transitional relief as new rates are put in next April.

john-caddick-moda-livingTo create the Northern Powerhouse or Midlands Engine, agglomeration to help achieve scale is critical, and that means investing in cross-country and inter-city transport beyond HS2. Theresa May has made rebalancing the economy away from London a top priority, and that requires for genuine counter-weights to the capital to emerge, so we need to see more projects like HS3 for the North and elsewhere.”

Johnny Caddick, managing director of Moda Living

Nigel-EvansPhilip Hammond said residential completions were at a eight-year high, in London Private completions were the highest they have been for over a decade at 19,688 units, this is likely to increase at the end of 2016 on the back of the 47,500 units under construction at the end of 2015 but drop at the end of 2017. In London we estimate that for construction completions 2016 was the peak…”

 Nigel Evans, head of EGi’s London Residential Research

90,000 affordable homes promised for London, at the end of 2015 only 7,616 social units had started we expect the same at the end of 2016…

• 1.13pm: Some £2.7bn of funds set aside for 140,000 new homes so far in the Autumn Statement.

• 1.12pm: 17% corporation tax announced, lowest in G20.

• 1.12pm: 90,000 affordable homes for London, in 2015 only 7,616 social units started EGi expects the same in 2016.

• 1.11pm: Business led recovery is at the heart of the govt, says Hammond. “Britain is open for business.”
• 1.06pm: London will receive more than £3bn for more than 90,000 affordable homes.

Nigel-EvansIs increasing the right to buy the right thing to do does this not just diminish the amount of rental stock for the increasing numbers that cannot afford to buy?”

Nigel Evans, head of EGi’s London Residential Research

• 1.03pm: Too much focus on South East, says Hammond.

• 1.01pm: UK guarantee scheme extended to at least 2026.

graham-shone-07-sqONS data shows that, on average, housing became less affordable in 291 out of 366 individual local authorities from 2015 to 2016 – and EGi’s London Residential data shows that affordable housing commands an ever-decreasing proportion of the development pipeline.

So there’s no question that housing needs a supply boost – whether that comes from the government giving more financial help or bigger incentives to private developers to push forward with housing projects of all tenures, or empowering local authorities to once again deliver the swathes of new units they did prior to the 1980s. Today’s announcement of a further £1.4bn fund to help deliver another 40,000 affordable homes is a start – but it’s a long road to what we’d describe as satisfactory.

ons-data-autumn-statement

A long-term plan to give us an idea of the government’s plan to solve the housing crisis would be enormously welcome – but we may need to wait for the White Paper on housing to find out what the practical mechanics of that might be.

Graham Shone, senior analyst EGi

• 12.56pm: £1.4bn to deliver 40,000 affordable homes, £2.3bn housing infrastucture fund for up to 100,000 new homes

• 12.55pm: Lower growth forecast by OBR could be reflected in the number of resi starts in the capital.
• 12.55pm: A new national productivity investment fund of £23bn to invest in infrastructure and innovation to be formed.

• 12.51pm: Government will prioritise high value investment in infrastructure and innovation to raise Britain’s productivity.

Nigel-EvansLower growth forecast by OBR could be reflected in the number of construction starts in the capital – LRR estimates that starts will be down between 5,000 and 6,000 at the end of 2016 and that the peak in terms of construction starts has already happened at the end of 2015.”

Nigel Evans, head of EGi’s London Residential Research

• 12.45pm: “The government no longer seeks to deliver a surplus by 2020,” Hammond says.

• 12.41pm: Hammond puts “housing challenge” on top list of “tackling economy’s long term weaknesses”.

• 12.41pm: “Economy must be resilient as we leave the EU” – government needs fiscal discipline, says Hammond.


• Chancellor expected to announce £1.4bn affordable housing fund

Chancellor Philip Hammond is to announce a new £1.4bn fund for affordable rented housing in a shift away from the previous administration’s focus on home ownership.

• Letting agent share prices drop

Major UK letting agents have seen their share prices fall after early announcements from the Autumn Statement saying letting agents will be banned from charging fees to tenants.

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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR IN THIS YEAR’S AUTUMN STATEMENT

  • Business rates

  • Corporation tax

  • Get Britain building – the £3bn fund for small builders

  • Infrastructure

  • Planning

  • Housebuilding

  • Devolution and the Northern Powerhouse/Midland Engine

  • Starter homes and affordable housing

  • Public procurement rules

  • Rollout of 5G

  • Brexit

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WHAT’S YOUR VIEW?

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THE BIG PICTURE

Stability: Above all, in the first fiscal statement since the Brexit vote, Hammond will be looking to send a message of stability, that this will be a smooth ride and there is still some steam in the economy still. He will probably point to the Apple deal at Battersea.

Google confirms commitment at King’s CrossGoogle is to press ahead with the development of a major new building at King’s Cross following a period of uncertainty as to whether it would proceed.

Axa’s vote of confidence in the City market at 22 BishopsgateAXA Investment Managers – Real Assets is to proceed with the development of 22 Bishopsgate, EC2, in what will be seen as a vote of confidence for the City office market. 

Reform: We will probably hear a lot about structural economic reform and the need to work on productivity as well as deregulation – in an attempt to give a boost to businesses

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WHAT IT MEANS FOR PROPERTY

These are the announcements EG will be looking out for and the questions we will be asking

Residential

Stamp duty: An increased pressure on the high end. Possibility of 3% for PRS through second ownership?

Starter Homes: Will they continue?

Help to buy? Will it continue beyond 2020?

Housing associations: Will there be new regulations announced?

Modular building: Could there be government funding for these, tax relief or some other measures to encourage their use?

Off the back of Brexit EG is anticipating a number of measures such as:

Regional development funding: European Regional Development Funding from the £250m Midlands Engine Investment Fund • £400m Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund • £50m North West Evergreen Fund 2.

Regulation around borrowing: Hammond could turn his gaze on borrowing, especially for councils.

New funds: For everyone, especially as most expect the word ‘austerity’ to feature less in this budget.

Infrastructure spending and the infrastructure commission:

HS2, Crossrail 2, Overground: The stations and who is paying for them. Expect also some words on fast-tracking these projects and potentially a capital injection.

Tax relief on interest: Tax deductibility of interest and reform loss relief rules will be punitive for capital-intensive industries and especially developers.

Business Rates reform: The industry has been clamouring for this. Your guess will be as good as ours here…

New devo agreements: Focus on particular sectors in different areas such as, for example, advanced technology in Sheffield.

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OFF THE BACK OF THE AUTUMN STATEMENT

London SPG (GLA)

Housing white paper (DCLG)

Planning system changes (DCLG)

• Size of flats
• PRS level of affordable rents – and what affordable rents are
• Affordable housing requirements generally
• Affordable office space?
• Will build to rent schemes be exempt from starter homes?
• Creation of GLA planning task force
• Flat rate 35% – which developments are covered?
• Privatisation of planning system?
• Use it or lose it?
• Local plan changes?
• Allow councils to raise planning fees

HCA review and roles

GPU review and roles

• This has been a long time in the pipeline
• We could see clarification on the money
• Potentially a new chief executive?
• Will there be creation of a new company?
• What assets will it hold?
• What control will it have?
• Will there be a new chief executive?

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FROM OTHER MEDIA SOURCES

What others think of the Autumn Statement

Scrap the Autumn statement, says IMF (the Telegraph)

The government should scrap the Autumn Statement in its current form and move to a single Budget delivered by the chancellor in January, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Rumours, leaks, and predictions (the Telegraph)

This article comes with the usual disclaimer regarding all rumours and leaks: they should not be considered fact until they’ve been uttered by Mr Hammond himself.


stephen-kenny-gowling-wlgThe chancellor has a challenge with predictions of weaker growth in the economy and borrowing higher than forecast. I would expect measures to help the housing supply and investment in local transport/highways and flood defence schemes but I would not expect a massive programme of social infrastructure spend.”

Stephen Kenny, infrastructure partner, Gowling WLG


UK slowdown will give little scope for tax cuts (the Guardian)

A slowdown in the UK economy will hit tax receipts and leave the chancellor with little wriggle room for giveaways at next week’s autumn statement, a new report warns.

Government must get serious over simplifying tax cuts (City AM)

With British business awash with Brexit uncertainty, it has never been more important for the government to simplify our complicated tax system.

The right kind of budget (the Economist)

A to do list for Philip Hammond


lee-nuttall-gowling-wlgStamp duty: commercial SDLT rates – “For commercial rates of SDLT, more change is likely. Only in the Finance Act 2016 was the new slice system introduced for calculating SDLT (an improvement on the old ‘slab’ system). But the slices and the rates – currently 0% for the first slice of £150k; 2% for £250k-500k and 5% thereafter – could be made more progressive, with the introduction of an additional slice (say, 7% for the slice above £3m).”

Corporation tax – “The corporation tax rate is likely to reduce further than 17% in some instances. We will be at 17% for the mainstream corporation tax rate by 2020, but the corporation tax rate could go down to 15% and as far as 10% (for some profit streams at least) in order to keep the UK competitive in a world of higher tariffs/import duties.

Lee Nuttall, head of tax, Gowling WLG


Greater Manchester’s business wish list (Manchester Evening News)

The first Autumn Statement from Theresa May’s government is due later this month. Business leaders in Greater Manchester tell Shelina Begum what they want to hear from the chancellor.

Contractors’ wish list (Contractor UK)

This year, the Autumn Statement is set to be a pinnacle moment for the new government, as the Tory administration is known to be keen to roll-out its vision for the economy ‘post-Brexit’ and; dare we mention something even more divisive, ‘post-Trump.’

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FROM THE EG ARCHIVES

BPF-logo-THUMB.jpegBPF seeks stamp duty reversal

The British Property Federation and its build-to-rent members are urging the chancellor to bring in measures to help the sector meet the government’s housing targets in the face of uncertainty over Brexit. More…

EU-stars-BrexitBack to parliament: property policy crunch time

The property sector needs support and clarity from the government to ensure development does not stall during the UK’s negotiations to leave the European Union. More…

Gavin-BarwellGavin Barwell hits local plans

The Neighbourhood Planning Bill will confirm a statutory duty for authorities to have a local plan in place and give the housing and planning minster powers to make councils work together, according to Gavin Barwell. More…

Planning-3Planning fee hike on the cards

Housing minister Gavin Barwell has strongly hinted he will allow councils to raise planning fees. More…

Money-sterling£700m regional funds at risk

More than £700m of regional funding is hanging in the balance as the chancellor’s Autumn Statement deadline for guaranteeing approved grants looms. More…

Helen-Gordon-FOTGordon calls for residential rent and sale balance

Grainger chief executive Helen Gordon has called on government to “even the playing field” between housing for sale and housing for rent. More…

Sajid_JavidJavid: new community powers will boost development

Communities secretary Sajid Javid has defended neighbourhood planning, saying it was “far from being a nimby’s charter” as he promoted new planning powers for community groups.

George-Osborne-2016-REX-THUMBAutumn Statement 2015: Devolution of business rates explained

Business rates were high on the list of things the property sector expected to be talked about. Ahead of that Kevin Muldoon-Smith and Dr Paul Greenhalgh consider how the recent business rates announcements would affect the commercial property sector

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