Could a second Scotland independence referendum be imminent following last week’s landslide victory for Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP?
While many industry commentators think this could be the case, television election commentator professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde believes that businesses need not fear the upheaval caused by another referendum in the next few years.
“What matters is that the SNP cannot hold another referendum unless it gains another majority in the Holyrood elections 2016,” says Curtice.
He adds: “The SNP now appreciates that it cannot afford to lose an independence referendum twice, and it cannot win one if it again starts a long way behind. I don’t think it would want another referendum unless independence was consistently supported by about 50% in the polls.”
Although the Scottish property industry sees another referendum as a potential problem, it views it as a fairly distant one.
Doug Smith, chairman of CBRE Scotland, says: “The prospect of another referendum is three or four steps away, so it’s not really on the agenda. People’s antennae are working, put it that way. They are aware it might come eventually.”
Should investors be worried? Click here to read the full analysis in EG’s Focus on Scotland.
