Sometimes you hear a number and immediately think to yourself: “Nope, can’t be right. Surely that’s wrong.”
The Evening Standard yesterday revealed government plans to sell Holloway Prison to make way for a potential £2.25bn housing scheme.
Alarm bells start ringing. £2.25bn? Okay, let’s see how they got there. The article says that agents reckon flats could sell for around £450,000 to £550,00. Yep, probably not wrong there. It also goes on to say property sources believe the site could accommodate 5,000 homes.
What? 5,000? Holloway Prison? I mean I don’t know the site personally, but I’ve been past it many times having site visited the area on numerous occasions. Looking at densities of existing communities and comparable schemes currently under way and in planning, we’d suggest a more likely figure will be closer to 500 homes.
So how big is the site? A bit of digging as well as Google Maps to back it up, suggests it is around the 10-acre mark. So 500 homes per acre? Err, pretty sure that’s not going to get past planners.
Here’s the outline of the prison. 5,000 homes? Jog on.
For some context, here’s another site, less than two miles up the road: Woodberry Down. This site will provide just over 5,000 homes. To do that, developer Berkeley is having to substantially increase the density to around 231 units per ha. The estate was previously made up of just 2,000 units, so around 100 units per ha.
New buildings will typically range from eight to 12 storeys, with a number of taller elements and high-rise buildings. Two towers, of 27 and 30 storeys, have recently completed (see below). Another of around 20 is currently under construction.
I was there recently. A number of new buildings are now complete, but it’s a 20-30 year project.
Going back to the Holloway Prison plans, the agent is claiming 5,000 homes could be provided across 10 acres, which are equal to 4ha. Therefore the density across the site will be around 1,250 units per ha, making it more than five times as dense. The only way to do that would to build 30-40 towers across the entire site, with no low-rise buildings. That would be a tall order.
For EG‘s coverage of the story, click here.
